In a new paper posted on JAMA Network, researches ran a computer simulation which has predicted a massive outbreak in measles in Texas due to a decrease in childhood vaccinations. The authors of the paper have cautioned of a “dramatic increases in the probability of large outbreaks”

Lead author of the study David Sinclair told Newsweek “I was surprised at how large measles outbreaks could be in Texas at current vaccination rates, according to our forecasts. The clustering of unvaccinated children in certain schools appears to help measles spread widely… We also find that while 64 percent of infections may occur in children with a religious or personal vaccine exemption, 36 percent of cases occur in other members of the population: those unable to be vaccinated, those for whom the vaccine failed to provide immunity, and unvaccinated members of the population who are not school children. This supports the argument that individual choices to seek non-medical vaccine exemptions can have significant negative health outcomes for other people.”

What was not clear from the computer prediction was how many children factored into the equations were labeled unvaccinated because they were either recent or illegal immigrants. Curiously the simulation made no predictions as to where an outbreak could have come from.

It is always interesting to see studies come out promoting the benefits of vaccinations, but none that demonstrate vaccination safety or even their true efficacy (10% or less “effective” flu vaccination that is pushed every year). But again, the medical mafia is all to quiet on that front.

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